Saturday, July 16, 2005

free advice to china ?

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there is a lot of talk about whether the markets have failed to understand the significance of 'peak oil.'

when this discussion is over - who will adjudicate the winners ? who will deliver the verdict ? or will we all go our separate ways a little wiser but still holding diverse views ?

no, the market is always right.

the market is made possible by people holding slightly differing views. ( a market in which everyone holds the same view is called a panic.) if the market is 'wrong' - then place your correct bet and make your fortune. there will be slight movement in your chosen direction and the market will be right once again. if you insist that the market is still 'wrong' - bet again tomorrow.

keep teaching the market a lesson about peak oil, and get incredibly rich. if there is a flaw in the peak oil theory somewhere - then the market will teach you a lesson.

so you will either get a fortune or an education. it looks like a win-win situation to me.

if you own oil, pump it, sell it, and use the money to bet on the oil futures market. that is a lot less risky than leaving the oil in the ground, or even in storage tanks above ground. o yes, and as you buy oil futures you will be stimulating the market price of the oil that you are about to sell next.

some people i know would actually prefer the supply of oil to be a bit more secure. they have 1,300,000,000 people, massive dollar reserves, and nuclear weapons. someone send me the address of their website and e mail and i will let them know how it can be done.

except that without the insecurity the futures price would soar. so it seems that you get an education in this business whichever way you turn . . . .
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