Tuesday, September 27, 2005

peak oil psychology.

.
the peak oil scenario theorists might consider this one -

right at the moment o p e c has no takers for the extra crude
oil they have put on the market. so the ceiling on supply
is not in crude oil but in refined oil products. so peak petrol
(if you like) is a ceiling lower and tighter than peak (crude,
saudi) oil.

this is a further aspect of my repeated thesis that the
consumer does not experience 'peak oil' but only peak
petrol/diesel price at the pumps - plus the inflation caused
by other people factoring in higher transport costs to the
prices of their products. . .

now i want to go a step further.

markets are highly psychological. there can be a further
ceiling, and it is the perception of peak oil. that ceiling can
be lower again than the ceiling created by the actual supply
of refined products.

i suspect that the graphic scenes of southern u s
infrastructure, including oil facilities, getting destroyed, and
an administration powerless to do anything about it - is
capable of turning the tide of perception.

petrol/diesel supplies may now recover a little, oil prices
may fall a little - while at the same time the perception of
shortage continues to take hold.

where will it show ? i suggest in the weakening of the
price of second homes. whether for weekends by car, or
bi-annual trips by air, second homes as investments are
travel dependent and thus fuel price dependent.

secondly in the gas guzzler s u v market, where the
purchaser of a new vehicle has to look about four years
ahead, depending on how often they trade in their
vehicle. psychology plays a part there.

a further psychological downer is this - the perception
that invading weaker countries to grab oil (however you
wrap it up in rhetoric about freedom) does not actually
add to the flow of oil, but badly impedes it. the game is
up there also.

if peak oil psychology takes hold - oil can go back to
$40 dollars/barrel, and people will not be comforted,
'knowing' that this is only temporary.

these things can happen.

watch and see.
.

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark your site!

I have a dinar investing iraqi
site. It pretty much covers dinar investing iraqi
related stuff.

Come and check it out if you get time :--)

11:51 AM  
Blogger cc Infopage said...

.

Games & PC Games News - Oct. 16, 2005


Is the PC game market? (Dallas Morning News)
The last few years have not been all fun and games for computer game fans, but that might be changing. As attention has shifted to sophisticated video game consoles such as the Xbox and PlayStation 2, PC gamers have watched their preferred platform wither.

Xbox 360's New Media Play Finding Fans (eWeek)
Consumers were impressed by the expanded multimedia features of Microsoft's upcoming Xbox 360 at the Digital Life conference, while gamers were excited to begin using the devices to access other types of services.

NewTek Releases Fifth Free Feature Update for LightWave 3D (Digital WebCast)
NewTek, Inc., manufacturer of industry-leading 3D animation and video products, today announced the release of the fifth free update and the 64-bit port for Emmy award-winning LightWave 3D . Version 8.5 offers hardware support of OpenGL 2.0, the new Multishift tool with editable history, Photoshop -style texture blending modes, improved dynamics, and easier integration of third-party file formats.

Free Anonymous Proxies

Infopage.cc: 30,000 updated Free Information Pages



Have a nice day,

jeepee

8:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello!
Very interesting blog.
I will make sure to come back often to this blog.
If You really are interested in france in investing offshore I can strongly
recommend france in investing offshore
Here You can find an almost comlete directory of this subject.

12:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GET PAID TO DRIVE YOUR OWN CAR.... BETTER YET GET A FREE CAR -- GET PAID UP TO £1200 A MONTH
This is no scam. This is a genuine offer for you to earn some good cash for doing nothing but drive a car.
Get Paid To Drive in UK Now

The BIGGEST advertising coup has been taking the United States of America by storm and now it's
available in the United Kingdom! Companies will pay you a monthly fee to display ads on your car!

We offer an introduction to the UK companies that are operating in a fantastic new media, Car Wrapping. You will have seen the promo cars driving around in your area and possibly thought the driver worked for the company.

Get Paid To Drive in UK Now

You were most likely wrong. The driver was driving around in a free car or was being paid. Now you can have access to all the companies in one place.

Get Paid To Drive in UK Now

People all over the World are being paid to drive their cars and now if you live in the UK you can also be paid. By simply driving their car the way they ordinarily would, they are also making up to £1200 per month!

If you are willing to drive your car with a company advertisement on it to your job, the shops, school runs etc., there are companies in the UK looking to pay you to do this - GUARANTEED. This is an ideal way for anyone to earn some additional income!
Companies want to give you money for you to DRIVE your own car. They just add advertisements on your car. That's it!

Get Paid To Drive in UK Now

WHAT'S THE CATCH? There isn't! You can drive as you normally do and get paid for it
Who Qualifies...

You must be 18 years of age or older, possess a valid drivers license and fill out the required application for each programme you wish to join.
You must be a citizen or permanent resident of one of the The United Kingdom.
Get Paid To Drive in UK Now

Your driving record, driving habit, location etc will be taken into consideration by the advertiser during the selection process. Most companies require a minimum monthly driving mileage and a clean driving record (at least no driving offences within the past 12 months). PaidtoDrive.co.uk does not pay you to advertise and cannot guarantee your acceptance into any programmed you sign up for. We can, however, guarantee the legitimacy of these programs and the application process.
Get Paid To Drive in UK Now

In the event you have been convicted of a driving offence, driving under the influence of drugs/alcohol, or had more than two serious motor accidents in the last two years, we cannot guarantee that your application will be accepted and strongly urge you not to continue any further.

Please visit our frequently asked questions section if you have further questions. Alternatively you can email me at sales@paidtodrive.co.uk
Yours Faithfully,
Get Paid To Drive in UK Now
Team

Get Paid To Drive in UK Now

8:45 PM  
Blogger santia said...

I like Dinar.and its revaluation of currency.
Dinar

10:10 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home